US inflation came in hotter than expected in October. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in the month, against 0.3% forecast by economists, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 am New York time (13:30 GMT).
The report removed almost any doubt that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in December. Bond yields jumped, tech stocks fell and Bitcoin dropped to its weakest level since August.
Key facts
- All prices (CPI): up 0.4% in October, after 0.6% in September. Forecast: 0.3%.
- Core prices (without food and energy, which swing a lot): up 0.3%, the same pace as in August and September. Forecast: 0.2%.
- Energy: up 0.7%, after a 5.2% jump in September. Gasoline rose 1.0% after seasonal adjustment.
- Food: up 0.5%, both in shops and in restaurants.
- Housing costs (shelter): up 0.3%, after 0.4% in September.
- No yearly figure: the agency could not publish the usual 12-month inflation rate. It did not collect price data in October 2025 because the government was shut down, so there is nothing to compare with.
What the Fed is saying
The Fed’s rate range is 3.75% to 4.00%. It raised rates in September, held them in October and meets next on December 8–9.
A few hours before the data, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech in London that he supports a quarter-point hike in December even if October inflation came in soft. If the numbers came in strong, he said, a half-point hike “should be considered”, because moving too slowly would put the Fed’s credibility at risk.
How markets reacted
Figures from the morning in New York:
- Fed bets: after the report, futures prices showed about an 85% chance of a quarter-point hike in December and about 15% for a half point, according to CME FedWatch. The chance of no change fell to zero.
- Treasury yields: the 10-year rose to about 4.99% and the 2-year to about 4.74%.
- Stocks: the Nasdaq was down about 1.1% late in the morning, with Nvidia down about 6%.
- Bitcoin: about $73,000, down roughly 3% in 24 hours and its weakest level since August 20. Ether, XRP and Solana were each down close to 6%.
Why it matters
Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and safe bonds more attractive, which tends to weigh on riskier assets such as tech stocks and crypto. With a strong October jobs report last week and now firm inflation, the Fed has little reason to wait.
The open question is the size of the December move. The November jobs report on December 4 is the last big piece of data before the decision on December 9.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
