Biotech (XBI) vs Bitcoin
XBI is a fund that holds about 150 US biotech companies in equal amounts, so small companies with a single drug count as much as giants. Like Bitcoin, it is a bet on the future that lives on cheap money. Here are the two side by side since 2017, with the S&P 500 as the yardstick.
$100 invested
What $100 put into each one at the start of the period would be worth now. The scale is logarithmic, so the same climb on the chart means the same percentage gain. Hover or tap for the values on any day.
Do they move together?
Correlation of daily moves over the previous 90 trading days. At 1 they move in lockstep, at 0 they ignore each other. Biotech and Bitcoin tend to move together when the market as a whole is driven by interest rates, and apart when each has its own news (FDA decisions, halvings, ETFs).
Year by year
Calendar-year change, price only. In 3 of the 9 full years since 2017, biotech did better than Bitcoin.
| Year | Biotech (XBI) | Bitcoin | S&P 500 (SPY) | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | +24.8% | −13.4% | +7.8% | Biotech (XBI) |
| 2025 | +35.4% | −6.3% | +16.4% | Biotech (XBI) |
| 2024 | +0.9% | +121.9% | +23.3% | Bitcoin |
| 2023 | +7.6% | +153.6% | +24.3% | Bitcoin |
| 2022 | −25.9% | −64.1% | −19.5% | S&P 500 (SPY) |
| 2021 | −20.5% | +59.7% | +27.0% | Bitcoin |
| 2020 | +48.0% | +303.1% | +16.2% | Bitcoin |
| 2019 | +32.6% | +92.2% | +28.8% | Bitcoin |
| 2018 | −15.5% | −74.5% | −6.3% | S&P 500 (SPY) |
| 2017 | +42.4% | +1303.8% | +18.5% | Bitcoin |
Why biotech and Bitcoin are cousins
- Both pay off later. Most small biotechs have no sales yet; their value is a drug that may be approved in years. Bitcoin pays no dividend. Both are worth more when money is cheap and patience is easy.
- Both need fresh money. Biotechs burn cash on trials and sell new shares to survive; when rates rise, that gets expensive. That is why XBI fell more than 60% from February 2021, much like Bitcoin in 2022.
- Both react to the Fed. Rate cuts tend to help both. See FOMC & Crypto.
Where they differ
A single biotech stock can jump or crash in one day on an FDA answer, but in XBI those surprises mostly cancel out. Takeovers matter too: when big drug companies buy small ones, often at double the price, the whole index rises. Bitcoin has nothing like that, and it trades every day of the year.
Correlation changes over time and says nothing about the future. Price changes only, without dividends. Not financial advice. See what is coming in the FDA Decision Calendar and the companies we review in Biotech.
Frequently asked questions
What is XBI?
XBI is a fund that holds about 150 US biotech companies in equal amounts, so small companies with a single drug count as much as giants.
Why compare biotech with Bitcoin?
Both are bets on the future that live on cheap money. Most small biotechs have no sales yet, Bitcoin pays no dividend, and both tend to be worth more when money is cheap.
Has biotech beaten Bitcoin?
In 3 of the 9 full years since 2017, biotech did better than Bitcoin, measured by calendar-year price change.
Do biotech and Bitcoin move together?
They tend to move together when the whole market is driven by interest rates, and apart when each has its own news, such as FDA decisions, halvings or ETFs.
XBI and SPY: Yahoo Finance (daily close, USD). Bitcoin: CoinMarketCap (daily close, USD), taken on US trading days. Updated every time the site is rebuilt.
