Moderna review

The short version

Moderna made one of the two mRNA COVID vaccines that were given to billions of people in 2021. When the pandemic ended, its sales collapsed, from tens of billions of dollars to $1.9 billion in all of 2025. The latest quarter was much better: Q3 2026 revenue rose 29% to $1.3 billion and the company made a $162 million profit (Moderna Q3 2026 results). In 2026 it also became a different story: its personalized cancer vaccine with Merck, intismeran autogene, succeeded in a Phase 3 melanoma trial, and the share price rose from about $22 to over $260 in a year.

What Moderna makes

Today Moderna sells vaccines for COVID-19 (Spikevax and the newer mNEXSPIKE), RSV (mRESVIA) and, since 5 August 2026, flu: mFLUSIVA is the first mRNA flu vaccine approved in the US, for adults 50 and older. It was about 27% more effective than a standard flu shot in its main trial (Becker’s). The US launch this season is limited, because approval came after the yearly contracts were signed. Moderna also has a shot that combines flu and COVID, approved in the EU as mCOMBRIAX and in Canada as mCOFLU; in the US it is still waiting for FDA guidance.

Vaccine sales are seasonal: most come in the autumn. In Q3 2026 revenue was $780 million in the US and $533 million abroad, and the growth came mainly from COVID vaccine deliveries under government contracts outside the US. Moderna’s results release does not give sales by product, so the flu and RSV numbers are not known (Moderna Q3 2026 results).

Is it really new?

The technology is. mRNA tells the body’s cells to make a protein, so a new vaccine can be designed in days. The cancer vaccine pushes that further: for each patient, Moderna reads the tumor’s DNA and makes a vaccine for up to 34 of its mutations. No personalized cancer vaccine has ever been approved. In the INTerpath-001 trial, adding it to Keytruda after melanoma surgery cut the risk of the cancer returning or death by 42% (hazard ratio 0.58) after about two years (CancerNetwork). Whether it helps people live longer is not yet proven. It has not been filed yet: Moderna and Merck say they are working toward submissions, and the CEO has said the aim is full approval next year (CNBC). One newsletter covering the Q3 call reports a goal of filing with the FDA in 2026 (Biotech Catalyst Calendar).

The vaccines for COVID, RSV and flu are less new: these diseases already had vaccines, and Moderna competes on effectiveness and speed.

The competition

In vaccines, Moderna competes with Pfizer and BioNTech (COVID), GSK and Pfizer (RSV) and the big flu vaccine makers (Sanofi, GSK, CSL Seqirus), which are cheaper and well established. In cancer vaccines, its main rival is BioNTech, which tests a similar personalized approach with Genentech in pancreatic and colon cancer. Moderna and Merck are ahead, with the first positive Phase 3. One old fight is over: on 28 October 2026 Moderna and GSK settled their patent disputes in the US and Europe by licensing each other their patents, with no payments (Moderna Q3 2026 results).

Money

Q3 was profitable, but the year is not. Moderna lost $1.96 billion in the first nine months of 2026, including a $0.9 billion legal charge, and used $2.7 billion of cash in its operations. It raised about $3 billion by selling convertible notes (debt that can turn into shares), about $2.6 billion after costs, and paid $950 million for the legal settlement. That left $8.0 billion of cash and investments at the end of September, up from $6.9 billion in June.

It now expects 2026 revenue to grow 15–25%, up from “up to 10%”, which is about $2.2–2.4 billion on 2025’s $1.94 billion. It expects to end the year with $8.1–8.3 billion, up from $4.7–5.2 billion, thanks to the new debt and better operations (Moderna Q3 2026 results). Research spending is falling, to about $2.7 billion this year. The good news is that Merck shares the cost of the cancer vaccine program.

Risks

• One big bet. Most of the $100+ billion valuation rests on intismeran, which is not yet filed with regulators.
• US vaccine politics. Under the current US health leadership, the FDA first refused to review the flu vaccine in February 2026 before reversing, and federal funding for mRNA research was cut in 2025.
• Cash burn while sales are small and seasonal. The cash pile now comes with $3 billion of new convertible debt.
• Other pipeline misses. The norovirus vaccine did not meet the criteria for early success at an interim look in Phase 3.
• Extreme volatility. The stock more than doubled on 19 August 2026 and fell about 18% in one day in October.

Our take

Moderna has gone from a fading COVID company to a possible leader in cancer vaccines. The melanoma result is a real scientific milestone, and Q3 2026 showed the vaccine business is healthier than feared. But it is still small and loss-making over a full year, and the share price already assumes approval and a big launch. This is one of the highest-risk large biotech stocks: worth following closely, especially the Analyst Day on 12 November 2026 and any news about a filing for intismeran.