Eli Lilly review

The short version

Eli Lilly is a 150-year-old drugmaker from Indianapolis that became the biggest winner of the obesity boom. Its drug tirzepatide (sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss) is now the best-selling medicine of its kind in the world. In the third quarter of 2026 Lilly’s revenue reached $24.4 billion, up 39% from a year earlier, and it raised its 2026 forecast to $91–92 billion (Lilly Q3 2026 results). In November 2025 it became the first healthcare company worth more than $1 trillion.

What Lilly makes

Two products carry the company. Mounjaro sold $10.7 billion in the quarter (+65%) and Zepbound $5.35 billion (+49%). Both are the same molecule, tirzepatide, a weekly injection. Together they bring in about two of every three dollars Lilly earns.

The third obesity product is Foundayo (orforglipron), a once-a-day pill approved by the FDA on 1 April 2026 in the fastest approval of a new medicine since 2002 (Fierce Pharma). It sold $184 million in its second quarter on the market. The rest of the business is smaller but growing fast: the Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla (+175%), the blood cancer drug Jaypirca (+59%) and the eczema drug Ebglyss (+59%).

Is it really new?

Partly. Novo Nordisk invented the modern weight-loss injection with semaglutide (Ozempic and Wegovy). Tirzepatide was the first medicine to act on two gut hormones at once (GIP and GLP-1) instead of one, and in a head-to-head trial it caused more weight loss than Wegovy. So it is both first-in-class and, today, best-in-class.

Foundayo is less new than it looks. It hits the same GLP-1 target as Wegovy, and Novo’s Wegovy pill reached pharmacies three months earlier. What is different is the chemistry: Foundayo is a small molecule, not a peptide, so patients don’t need to take it on an empty stomach and Lilly can make it cheaply in huge amounts. That matters for price, which is where the obesity market is now competing.

The competition

The obesity market is a two-horse race between Lilly and Novo Nordisk, and Lilly is clearly ahead: its sales are growing while Novo expects its own 2026 sales to fall by up to 6%. Behind them, Amgen (MariTide, a monthly injection) and Pfizer (which bought Metsera in 2025) are in late trials. A different threat is generic semaglutide, which went on sale in 2026 in Canada, India and China after Novo’s patents ended there. It pulls prices down everywhere, even though Lilly’s own patents are still in force.

Money

Lilly sells far more medicine than a year ago (volume +53%), but each dose earns less (price −15%). This is the deal behind the boom: in late 2025 Lilly and Novo agreed with the US government to sell weight-loss drugs at lower prices, starting at $149 a month for the lowest pill doses, in exchange for wider coverage, including Medicare. More patients at lower prices has so far meant more money overall. Lilly is also spending heavily on factories and buying smaller companies; in Q3 2026 alone it booked $4.57 per share of costs for acquired research.

Patents and when copies can arrive

The main US patent on tirzepatide runs until about 2036. That is a long time in drug terms: Novo’s semaglutide is already off patent in several large countries and loses US protection in the early 2030s. Lilly’s long patent life is one of the main reasons investors value it so highly.

Risks

• One-molecule company. If a safety problem appeared with tirzepatide, or a much better drug arrived, most of Lilly’s sales would be at risk.
• Falling prices. US price deals, cheaper pills and foreign generics push prices down every year.
• Retatrutide’s heart signal. In the TRIUMPH-3 trial, 27 people on retatrutide had a major heart event versus 23 on placebo. The difference is not statistically meaningful, but regulators will look at it closely (HCPLive).
• Valuation. At over $1.2 trillion, the share price already assumes many years of strong growth.

Our take

Lilly has the best products, the longest patents and the deepest pipeline in the most important new drug market in decades. The business is excellent. Whether the stock is a good buy is a separate question: at this size, the next big jump depends on retatrutide and on obesity drugs becoming a normal, long-term treatment paid for by insurers worldwide.